Motivation: While the present-day dynamics of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are broadly understood, predictability is limited, the long-term natural variability is poorly known, and the effect of greenhouse warming on the tropical ocean-atmosphere system is currently in much debate. In this course, we will discuss the following topics:
Goals: By the conclusion of this course students will have:
Evans , Laboratory of
Tree-Ring Research , 214 W.
Stadium . ph 626-2897; email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Office hours: Thursdays 1-2pm, W. Stadium 214, or by appointment. I will try to answer email correspondence within 24 hours.
Location and Time: Tree-Ring
Lab-West Seminar Room (Rm. 20), Wednesdays, 3-4:30pm. Our
introductory meeting will be on January 11, 2006. Stay tuned
for meeting time/date changes depending on student availability, to be
fixed no later than Jan 12, 2006.
Prerequisites: An interest in the science of global climate change. Prior or current coursework in oceanography, meteorology and climatology will be helpful, but we will begin with fundamentals.
Additional reading and course materials: I will provide them electronically here; alternatively as handouts in class. Please let me know if computer and Internet access is a problem for you.
commitment to reading the assigned literature (approximately 4-6
hrs/week) and active participation in discussions is absolutely essential. To provide some baseline
concepts, I will lecture on occasion, but otherwise, students will trade
off presenting the week's topics.
More background reading: if you'd
like more background on ocean-atmosphere dynamics and paleoclimatology,
see these excellent texts to get started (you can borrow many from me
for short periods; also check them out from the library):
Expectations: For 2 units of credit, students will read the literature assigned for class and participate actively in discussions; students will lead class at least twice, and preferably three times, during the course of the semester. See the evaluation rubric for what I expect from your participation in the course. I will provide constructive feedback on your work throughout the semester to help you improve. Depending on the number of participants, expect to lead class at least twice during the semester. For 3 units of credit: In addition to the 2-unit requirements, an 8-10 page term paper, including critical discussion of current literature, on a topic agreed to in advance with the instructor, will be required.
Syllabus (subject to revision)
|January 11th||The Big Picture||Organizational meeting; Introduction (pdf;ppt; html)||1. bookmark course website
2. return class survey
3. email me which discussions you'd like to lead
|January 18th||Present-day ENSO||
Phenomenology (pdf; ppt; html)
Rasmusson and Wallace (1983)
|January 25th||Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics (pdf)
||Bjerknes (1969) RQ
Barsugli's delayed oscillator animation
| J. Criscio
(summary by MNE)
||Predictive Modeling; 1997-8, 2002-3 events (pdf)||Zebiak
and Cane (1987) RQ
|| M. Decker
|February 8th||Modern ENSO theory and observations;
2005-6 diagnosis; 2006-7 prognosis (pdf)
|McPhaden (1999) RQ
TAO array data exercise
|February 15th||Teleconnection Theory and observations (pdf)
||Tribbia (1991); RQ Redmond
and Koch (1991)
Teleconnection data exercise
| S. Bieda, J. Conroy
||Regional Teleconnections: Observations (pdf)
et al. (2002); Higgins et al.
||J. Conroy, S. Bieda
||Paleoclimatology of ENSO||Decadal variability: Paradigm (pdf)||Fedorov and
Philander (2000) RQ;
optional: Fedorov and Philander (2001)
||Decadal variability: Proxy observations (pdf)||Gedalof
and Smith (2001); Evans et al.
optional: Evans et al. (2001b)
Proxy data analysis exercise
||Spring break - no class
||Decadal variability: Historical
data and analyses (pdf)
||Quinn et al. (1992)
||Guest Speaker: Henry Diaz, NOAA/CDC and LTRR|
||Decadal variability: Models (pdf; pdf)
||Karspeck and Cane (2002); Schneider and Cornuelle (2005); RQ||P. Shaw, T. Ault|
American Climate Variability and Predictability (pdf; pdf)
||Venzke et al. (2000); Pierce (2001); RQ||S. Bieda, P. Shaw|
|April 12th||ENSO in a Greenhouse World||Q&A: Review of ENSO physics
Observations: past century (pdf)
|Cane et al. (1997) (for
background, see Kaplan et al.
|April 19th||Simple model: forced chaos (pdf)
||Khatiwala et al. (2001) RQ|| N. Johnson
|April 26th||GCM studies (pdf; pdf)||Collins (2005); Timmerman et al. (1999); RQ
(for background, see Bacher et al. (1998) and Dai et al. (2001))
|M. Decker, N. Johnson|
||The Big Picture||Last class - Wrap up (pdf).||Review all